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    • 2023 News Articles >
      • SVB Bank Failure and Regional Banks
      • A Cautious Start to 2023
      • SECURE Act 2.0
      • Dealing With Unused 529 Funds
    • 2021 News Articles >
      • What is it about September?
      • Will Tax Law Changes Increase Your Taxes?
      • Tax Watch: SECURE Act 2.0?
      • The unstoppable bull market?
      • Stocks Cruise at a High Altitude
      • Tax law changes on the horizon – 5 things to consider
      • Not Your Fathers Economic Recovery
      • Are HSAs the New IRAs?
      • REVENGE OF THE NERDS - Internet forums vs. the professionals
      • Protect Your Financial Information
      • 2021 January Market update - A rollercoaster year ends on a high note
      • Avoiding 7 Retirement Traps
    • 2020 News Articles >
      • December Client Letter - Cruising at 30,000 Feet
      • 9 Tax Facts & Tips to Save You Money
      • 9 Smart Planning Moves to Consider
      • November Client Letter - Election 2020
      • 7 Financial Planning Steps for Year End 2020
      • 6 Tips on Filing the FAFSA
      • Circling Back to the SECURE Act!
      • A September Pothole
      • 6 Steps That Put You on the Path to a Successful Retirement
      • Consumer Scams Part 2
      • September 2020 Client Letter
      • Consumer Scams
      • May Client Letter-- Worst-Ever Economy Yet Stocks Show Best Monthly Gain Since '87
      • Why Waiting For A Market Rebound Could Cost You
      • How The Greatest Generation Approached September 11th
      • Laid Off And Near Retirement - What Now?
      • The SECURE Act
      • Market update: When favorable fundamentals collide with uncertainty
    • News - Archives >
      • 2015 - To be happy, be grateful. - It's science!!
      • 2015 - Market Volatility - So Now What?
      • 2015 - Retirement planning: Start early or start late – just start
      • 2015 - Financial Planning Checklist
      • 2014 In Review - A bullish mood and risks that dot the landscape.
      • 2015 - A sneak peek at 2015 – What to keep an eye on
      • 2015 - Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid for College
      • 2014 - Cheaper by the Dozen: 12 smart year end planning moves
      • 2014 - How safe is your personal information?
      • 2014 - Hey, what’s your number?
      • 2014 - What did we do before GPS?
      • 2014 - Changing Jobs Checklist
      • 2013 - US Government Shutdown - What it means
      • 2013 - Investing in College
      • 2012 - Getting (back) on track - The best part of my job…
      • 2011 - The Henny Penny School of Investment Wisdom
      • 2011 - 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Money Conflicts
      • 2011 - Intelligent Computer Shopping
      • 2011 - 7 things you and your student should discuss before they head off to college
      • 2011 - 7 mistakes to avoid when exiting your business
      • 2011 - Why you need an Estate Plan even if you don’t live in a mansion
      • 2011 - Celebrating Irish Heritage
      • 2010 - Priorities: Retirement Planning Vs College Savings for Children
      • 2010 - in review, and a look toward 2011
      • 2010 - New Years Resolutions - 2011
      • 2010 - Business Owners – a special case for diversification
      • 2010 - Year End Planning 2010
      • 2010 - Paying for college - Applying for student aid, determining your Expected Family Contribution
      • 2010 - Paying Taxes
      • 2010 - Job-Loss
      • 2010 - Habits
      • 2009 - Shopping
      • 2009 - Gift-Idea
      • 2009 - Thanksgiving
      • 2009 - Q3
      • 2009 - Recovery
      • 2009 - Results
      • 2009 - Digging
      • 2009 - Time
      • 2009 - Considering
      • 2008 - Planning
      • 2008 - Resolutions
    • Life Transitions >
      • Get A Job/Leave Job >
        • 9 Questions to ask your CPA at tax time
        • Getting (back) on track - the best part of my job
        • Changing Jobs Checklist
        • Job Loss
        • Taxes - 7 ideas to ease the burden - 2018
        • Year End Planning Checklist: 12 smart planning moves to consider
      • Marriage/Divorce/Re-Married >
        • 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Cash Conflicts
      • Kids (Birth/College/Marriage) >
        • 7 Things you and your student should discuss before they head off the college
        • Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid For College
        • Investing In College
        • Budgeting For Students
        • Save on Textbooks
        • Subsidized vs unsubsidized loans – what’s the difference?
        • 7 Tips for Your College Bound Student
        • “What I did on my Summer Vacation – 2019”
        • Budgeting for College Students - 2018
        • Most Significant FAFSA Changes in over 20 Years!!
        • Direct 529 Plan Changes To Be Implemented
      • Birth/Death >
        • Is a cash windfall in your future?
        • Planning for People with Special Needs
    • Client Letters >
      • 2019 - July Client Letter: Records Are Made To Be Broken
      • 2018 - Summer's Hot Issues
      • 2018 - November Market Update:
      • 2016 - January Client Letter - A volatile year ends with a whimper
      • 2016 - September Letter to Clients: The Ides of September?
      • 2016 - November Letter to Clients: The Final Countdown?
      • 2016 - December Letter to Clients: Near Term Impact of Trump's Victory
      • 2015 - September Client-letter: Looking past scary headlines
      • 2015 - November Client Letter: The Clouds Part
      • 2015 - December Client Letter, A Baker's Dozen: 13 Smart Planning Moves

The unstoppable bull market

​Whether from clients or acquaintances, there has been no shortage of inquiries about the market’s astounding rise.  During August, we saw multiple highs on the broad-based S&P 500 Index, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite topped 15,000 for the first time, according to data provided by Yahoo Finance.  Let’s offer a simple perspective. 
 
On August 18, 2020, the S&P 500 Index closed at a new high of 3,389.78, erasing all the losses incurred during the lockdowns and the Covid recession, according to S&P data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. The S&P 500’s prior peak of 3,386.15 occurred on February 19, 2020.  Since eclipsing its former high, the S&P 500 Index has racked up a gain of 33.4%, excluding reinvested dividends, through August 31, 2021. Put another way, this is an advance of over 30% in just over one year.
Picture
Sure, it’s a back-of-the-envelope analysis, but it illustrates one simple idea: the rise in the stock market has been impressive.  That said, let’s get back to the question about the market’s astounding rise. Most folks don’t understand it. I’ve heard it in casual conversations, and you have probably heard it, too. And many seem to expect (or want) a significant pullback.
 
We get it. While we are a strong believer that a diversified approach to stocks helps one participate in the long-term upward bias of stocks, we are hesitant to try to time the market or predict where a major index might be in one month, six months, or one year. However, we’d never discount the possibility of a market pullback over the near term.
 
Yet, the sharp run-up suggests that stocks are priced for perfection. When stocks are priced for perfection, we would subscribe to the idea that the market could be vulnerable to a selloff, since any negative surprises can broadside overly optimistic investors.  We have seen it happen before, but it has not happened over the last year. Declines have been minor and short-lived.
 
Absorbing unexpected surprises
 
During August, the rise in Covid cases tied to the Delta variant caused brief volatility, but investors are not on board with the idea that the health crisis will substantially slow the economic recovery and dampen corporate profits.  While some locales are re-implementing mask requirement, we have yet to see the type of restrictions that were in place in 2020 and early 2021. For now, the market is viewing the vaccines as an inoculation against a rapid slowdown in the economy.
 
We also saw tragic events play out in Afghanistan. While the images have been difficult to see and the geopolitical ramifications are unknown, simply put, investors don’t expect the U.S. withdrawal to have an impact on U.S. economic growth over the next six to nine months.
 
I recognize that’s a harsh way of viewing an unsettling situation that is tragic for many. But investors, both large and small (who continually and collectively make buy and sell decisions), have a very narrow lens. That lens is primarily targeted toward future economic growth, profits, Federal Reserve policy and interest rates.
 
Let’s look at it from a more practical angle. Will consumers decide to delay a vacation, a big purchase, or simply decide to eat at home rather than dining in a restaurant because of what’s happening in Asia? It’s highly unlikely.
 
Are stocks priced for perfection? In hindsight, all the ingredients for a strong rally have been in place over much of 2021. A strong economic recovery, much better-than-expected corporate profits, plenty of liquidity and extremely low interest rates.  Low interest rates not only help fuel market gains, they help support higher valuations.  While we will spare you a mind-numbing explanation of discounted cash flows, a quick way to explain how low rates influence equity prices is with a simple example. Low interest rates provide very little competition to stocks.  Low rates encourage investors to look at stocks and other riskier investments rather than settle for safe but paltry returns.
 
This is especially true when the economy is expanding, corporate profits are soaring and analysts are ramping up future earnings estimates. In other words, it is not simply low rates, but low rates combined with strong profit growth.  Today, there are few signs that economic growth is set to sharply slow.
 
Looking ahead, Fed Chief Jerome Powell said last month in a late August speech that the Fed is openly pondering a cutback in its monthly purchases of bonds; however, he  did not provide a firm timetable.  Many analysts expect something more concrete will be forthcoming this year. But the Fed hasn’t committed, which gives it wiggle room in the event economic growth or job growth unexpectedly slows. But any reduction in bond buys will be well telegraphed.  Furthermore, Powell insisted last month that rate hikes are not on the table right now, and the hurdle to raise interest rates is higher than cutting back on its monthly bond buys.
 
As we have said before, the pace of economic growth, employment growth, and what happens to inflation will likely have the biggest influence on when and how quickly interest rates might rise.  As we enter September, investors will consider whether lofty valuations can hold up to the unwinding of fiscal stimulus and the potential for a reduction in Federal Reserve bond buys later in the year. Eventually, a market pullback is inevitable. For now, powerful tailwinds have been supportive.
 
I trust you’ve found this review to be educational and informative.  Let me emphasize that it is my job to assist you. If you have any questions or would like to discuss any matters, please feel free to give me a call.
Your comments and questions are always welcome.
We look forward to hearing from you.  [email protected]


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The information being provided is strictly as a courtesy.  When you link to any of the web sites provided here you are leaving this web site.  We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided at these web sites.  Nor is the company liable for any direct or indirect technical or system issues or any consequences arising out of your access to or your use of third-party technologies, web sites, information and programs made available through this web site.  When you access one of these web sites, you are leaving our web site and assume total responsibility and risk for your use of the web sites you are linking to.  

- John Davidson, CFP
  • Home
  • Background
    • About Us
    • Q&A
    • Disclosures
    • Privacy Policy
  • Services
    • Planning Process
  • Clients
    • Business Owners
    • Individual Professionals, Families, Retirees
  • Contact Us
    • Newsletter Sign-Up
    • Useful Websites & Quick Hits
  • Account Access
  • News
    • 2023 News Articles >
      • SVB Bank Failure and Regional Banks
      • A Cautious Start to 2023
      • SECURE Act 2.0
      • Dealing With Unused 529 Funds
    • 2021 News Articles >
      • What is it about September?
      • Will Tax Law Changes Increase Your Taxes?
      • Tax Watch: SECURE Act 2.0?
      • The unstoppable bull market?
      • Stocks Cruise at a High Altitude
      • Tax law changes on the horizon – 5 things to consider
      • Not Your Fathers Economic Recovery
      • Are HSAs the New IRAs?
      • REVENGE OF THE NERDS - Internet forums vs. the professionals
      • Protect Your Financial Information
      • 2021 January Market update - A rollercoaster year ends on a high note
      • Avoiding 7 Retirement Traps
    • 2020 News Articles >
      • December Client Letter - Cruising at 30,000 Feet
      • 9 Tax Facts & Tips to Save You Money
      • 9 Smart Planning Moves to Consider
      • November Client Letter - Election 2020
      • 7 Financial Planning Steps for Year End 2020
      • 6 Tips on Filing the FAFSA
      • Circling Back to the SECURE Act!
      • A September Pothole
      • 6 Steps That Put You on the Path to a Successful Retirement
      • Consumer Scams Part 2
      • September 2020 Client Letter
      • Consumer Scams
      • May Client Letter-- Worst-Ever Economy Yet Stocks Show Best Monthly Gain Since '87
      • Why Waiting For A Market Rebound Could Cost You
      • How The Greatest Generation Approached September 11th
      • Laid Off And Near Retirement - What Now?
      • The SECURE Act
      • Market update: When favorable fundamentals collide with uncertainty
    • News - Archives >
      • 2015 - To be happy, be grateful. - It's science!!
      • 2015 - Market Volatility - So Now What?
      • 2015 - Retirement planning: Start early or start late – just start
      • 2015 - Financial Planning Checklist
      • 2014 In Review - A bullish mood and risks that dot the landscape.
      • 2015 - A sneak peek at 2015 – What to keep an eye on
      • 2015 - Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid for College
      • 2014 - Cheaper by the Dozen: 12 smart year end planning moves
      • 2014 - How safe is your personal information?
      • 2014 - Hey, what’s your number?
      • 2014 - What did we do before GPS?
      • 2014 - Changing Jobs Checklist
      • 2013 - US Government Shutdown - What it means
      • 2013 - Investing in College
      • 2012 - Getting (back) on track - The best part of my job…
      • 2011 - The Henny Penny School of Investment Wisdom
      • 2011 - 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Money Conflicts
      • 2011 - Intelligent Computer Shopping
      • 2011 - 7 things you and your student should discuss before they head off to college
      • 2011 - 7 mistakes to avoid when exiting your business
      • 2011 - Why you need an Estate Plan even if you don’t live in a mansion
      • 2011 - Celebrating Irish Heritage
      • 2010 - Priorities: Retirement Planning Vs College Savings for Children
      • 2010 - in review, and a look toward 2011
      • 2010 - New Years Resolutions - 2011
      • 2010 - Business Owners – a special case for diversification
      • 2010 - Year End Planning 2010
      • 2010 - Paying for college - Applying for student aid, determining your Expected Family Contribution
      • 2010 - Paying Taxes
      • 2010 - Job-Loss
      • 2010 - Habits
      • 2009 - Shopping
      • 2009 - Gift-Idea
      • 2009 - Thanksgiving
      • 2009 - Q3
      • 2009 - Recovery
      • 2009 - Results
      • 2009 - Digging
      • 2009 - Time
      • 2009 - Considering
      • 2008 - Planning
      • 2008 - Resolutions
    • Life Transitions >
      • Get A Job/Leave Job >
        • 9 Questions to ask your CPA at tax time
        • Getting (back) on track - the best part of my job
        • Changing Jobs Checklist
        • Job Loss
        • Taxes - 7 ideas to ease the burden - 2018
        • Year End Planning Checklist: 12 smart planning moves to consider
      • Marriage/Divorce/Re-Married >
        • 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Cash Conflicts
      • Kids (Birth/College/Marriage) >
        • 7 Things you and your student should discuss before they head off the college
        • Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid For College
        • Investing In College
        • Budgeting For Students
        • Save on Textbooks
        • Subsidized vs unsubsidized loans – what’s the difference?
        • 7 Tips for Your College Bound Student
        • “What I did on my Summer Vacation – 2019”
        • Budgeting for College Students - 2018
        • Most Significant FAFSA Changes in over 20 Years!!
        • Direct 529 Plan Changes To Be Implemented
      • Birth/Death >
        • Is a cash windfall in your future?
        • Planning for People with Special Needs
    • Client Letters >
      • 2019 - July Client Letter: Records Are Made To Be Broken
      • 2018 - Summer's Hot Issues
      • 2018 - November Market Update:
      • 2016 - January Client Letter - A volatile year ends with a whimper
      • 2016 - September Letter to Clients: The Ides of September?
      • 2016 - November Letter to Clients: The Final Countdown?
      • 2016 - December Letter to Clients: Near Term Impact of Trump's Victory
      • 2015 - September Client-letter: Looking past scary headlines
      • 2015 - November Client Letter: The Clouds Part
      • 2015 - December Client Letter, A Baker's Dozen: 13 Smart Planning Moves