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    • 2023 News Articles >
      • SVB Bank Failure and Regional Banks
      • A Cautious Start to 2023
      • SECURE Act 2.0
      • Dealing With Unused 529 Funds
    • 2021 News Articles >
      • What is it about September?
      • Will Tax Law Changes Increase Your Taxes?
      • Tax Watch: SECURE Act 2.0?
      • The unstoppable bull market?
      • Stocks Cruise at a High Altitude
      • Tax law changes on the horizon – 5 things to consider
      • Not Your Fathers Economic Recovery
      • Are HSAs the New IRAs?
      • REVENGE OF THE NERDS - Internet forums vs. the professionals
      • Protect Your Financial Information
      • 2021 January Market update - A rollercoaster year ends on a high note
      • Avoiding 7 Retirement Traps
    • 2020 News Articles >
      • December Client Letter - Cruising at 30,000 Feet
      • 9 Tax Facts & Tips to Save You Money
      • 9 Smart Planning Moves to Consider
      • November Client Letter - Election 2020
      • 7 Financial Planning Steps for Year End 2020
      • 6 Tips on Filing the FAFSA
      • Circling Back to the SECURE Act!
      • A September Pothole
      • 6 Steps That Put You on the Path to a Successful Retirement
      • Consumer Scams Part 2
      • September 2020 Client Letter
      • Consumer Scams
      • May Client Letter-- Worst-Ever Economy Yet Stocks Show Best Monthly Gain Since '87
      • Why Waiting For A Market Rebound Could Cost You
      • How The Greatest Generation Approached September 11th
      • Laid Off And Near Retirement - What Now?
      • The SECURE Act
      • Market update: When favorable fundamentals collide with uncertainty
    • News - Archives >
      • 2015 - To be happy, be grateful. - It's science!!
      • 2015 - Market Volatility - So Now What?
      • 2015 - Retirement planning: Start early or start late – just start
      • 2015 - Financial Planning Checklist
      • 2014 In Review - A bullish mood and risks that dot the landscape.
      • 2015 - A sneak peek at 2015 – What to keep an eye on
      • 2015 - Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid for College
      • 2014 - Cheaper by the Dozen: 12 smart year end planning moves
      • 2014 - How safe is your personal information?
      • 2014 - Hey, what’s your number?
      • 2014 - What did we do before GPS?
      • 2014 - Changing Jobs Checklist
      • 2013 - US Government Shutdown - What it means
      • 2013 - Investing in College
      • 2012 - Getting (back) on track - The best part of my job…
      • 2011 - The Henny Penny School of Investment Wisdom
      • 2011 - 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Money Conflicts
      • 2011 - Intelligent Computer Shopping
      • 2011 - 7 things you and your student should discuss before they head off to college
      • 2011 - 7 mistakes to avoid when exiting your business
      • 2011 - Why you need an Estate Plan even if you don’t live in a mansion
      • 2011 - Celebrating Irish Heritage
      • 2010 - Priorities: Retirement Planning Vs College Savings for Children
      • 2010 - in review, and a look toward 2011
      • 2010 - New Years Resolutions - 2011
      • 2010 - Business Owners – a special case for diversification
      • 2010 - Year End Planning 2010
      • 2010 - Paying for college - Applying for student aid, determining your Expected Family Contribution
      • 2010 - Paying Taxes
      • 2010 - Job-Loss
      • 2010 - Habits
      • 2009 - Shopping
      • 2009 - Gift-Idea
      • 2009 - Thanksgiving
      • 2009 - Q3
      • 2009 - Recovery
      • 2009 - Results
      • 2009 - Digging
      • 2009 - Time
      • 2009 - Considering
      • 2008 - Planning
      • 2008 - Resolutions
    • Life Transitions >
      • Get A Job/Leave Job >
        • 9 Questions to ask your CPA at tax time
        • Getting (back) on track - the best part of my job
        • Changing Jobs Checklist
        • Job Loss
        • Taxes - 7 ideas to ease the burden - 2018
        • Year End Planning Checklist: 12 smart planning moves to consider
      • Marriage/Divorce/Re-Married >
        • 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Cash Conflicts
      • Kids (Birth/College/Marriage) >
        • 7 Things you and your student should discuss before they head off the college
        • Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid For College
        • Investing In College
        • Budgeting For Students
        • Save on Textbooks
        • Subsidized vs unsubsidized loans – what’s the difference?
        • 7 Tips for Your College Bound Student
        • “What I did on my Summer Vacation – 2019”
        • Budgeting for College Students - 2018
        • Most Significant FAFSA Changes in over 20 Years!!
        • Direct 529 Plan Changes To Be Implemented
      • Birth/Death >
        • Is a cash windfall in your future?
        • Planning for People with Special Needs
    • Client Letters >
      • 2019 - July Client Letter: Records Are Made To Be Broken
      • 2018 - Summer's Hot Issues
      • 2018 - November Market Update:
      • 2016 - January Client Letter - A volatile year ends with a whimper
      • 2016 - September Letter to Clients: The Ides of September?
      • 2016 - November Letter to Clients: The Final Countdown?
      • 2016 - December Letter to Clients: Near Term Impact of Trump's Victory
      • 2015 - September Client-letter: Looking past scary headlines
      • 2015 - November Client Letter: The Clouds Part
      • 2015 - December Client Letter, A Baker's Dozen: 13 Smart Planning Moves

Not Your Fathers Economic Recovery

Technically, the economy is still in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the arbiter of recessions and economic recoveries, has yet to declare that the recession is over. When it does, it will likely backdate the end of the recession, as it has done in the past.  Key economic reports would suggest the low point for the economy occurred in April. These include employment, consumer spending, and manufacturing production (U.S. BLS, U.S. BEA, and the Federal Reserve, respectively). The top of the cycle occurred in February.

Whenever the NBER makes its declaration, this economic recovery has been far from what might be considered a normal recovery. The pandemic that led to the steepest slide in quarterly GDP on record (U.S. BEA, quarterly records began in 1947) has also shaped one of the most lopsided recoveries we’ve ever experienced.

Look no further than service-based industries that require the personal interactions to thrive, which is something we took for granted pre-Covid.  Social distancing restrictions and fear of contracting the virus have severely impacted airlines, hotels, travel, restaurants, concerts, and movie theaters. These industries and more have struggled to adapt to the new normalcy.  Did you notice football and other sporting events that were played in nearly empty stadiums? It’s not only wealthy owners that have been hurt--consider all the folks who worked at those events.

Even health care has suffered. According to data from the U.S. BEA, spending on health care is down 12% versus one year ago (Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020). Health care spending accounted for over 10% of GDP in the final three months of last year.  But other industries have adapted. For example, housing relies heavily on the personal touch. But record low interest rates have spurred strong demand for housing.  Essential retailers, home improvement, auto sales, and grocery stores have experienced robust numbers. Consequently, manufacturers were caught off guard by the resurgence in sales.

A February 22 story in the Wall Street Journal sums it up well: Consumer Demand Snaps Back, Factories Can’t Keep Up. Snarled supply chains, labor shortage thwart full reopening; “Everyone was caught flat-footed.”  Reopening various sectors of the economy has helped, and generous jobless benefits and two rounds of stimulus checks have left many with ample cash to spend. While the final touches aren’t yet on the latest relief package, more cash is likely on the way.

But here lies the problem. Government restrictions prevent most of us from attending sporting events, museums, and the theater. Moreover, many are not fully comfortable traveling on airplanes, spending a night in a hotel, or enjoying a meal at a restaurant.  The extra government support that has helped fuel growth has been funneled into some industries or into savings, as artificial barriers, which I recognize are needed, have severely hampered others.

You might consider your own circumstances. Have you noticed smaller balances on your monthly credit card statements? Have you noticed a different mix in your outlays versus pre-pandemic? Are you streaming more movies rather than going out to dinner or enjoying the theater? Has your choice of recreation been altered?

A new and costlier relief package that’s currently pegged at around $1.9 trillion seems likely to pass soon. Expect the new cash to support the economy and to continue to support various sectors that have benefitted at the expense of other sectors.   What might help the beleaguered industries that have suffered under today’s restrictions? For starters, a successful rollout of the vaccines that greatly reduces the odds one can contact Covid.

But I also want to be careful not to sound too gloomy. It’s been a difficult year and there’s plenty of uncertainty, but prospects this year look bright.

One closely followed GDP-tracking model places Q1 growth at 10%. A survey of economists by Moody Analytics suggests GDP growth this year could top 6%.  Economic forecasting, which is never easy, is even more difficult in today’s environment. Still, forecasters are sounding an optimistic tone.
Picture
Source: MSCI.com, Morningstar, MarketWatch
MTD: returns: Jan 29, 2021—Feb 26, 2021
YTD returns: Dec 31, 2020—Feb 26, 2021
*in US dollars
 
I trust you’ve found this review to be educational and informative.  Let me once again emphasize that it is my job to assist you. If you have any questions or would like to discuss any matters, please feel free to give me a call.
Your comments and questions are always welcome.
We look forward to hearing from you.  [email protected]


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- John Davidson, CFP
  • Home
  • Background
    • About Us
    • Q&A
    • Disclosures
    • Privacy Policy
  • Services
    • Planning Process
  • Clients
    • Business Owners
    • Individual Professionals, Families, Retirees
  • Contact Us
    • Newsletter Sign-Up
    • Useful Websites & Quick Hits
  • Account Access
  • News
    • 2023 News Articles >
      • SVB Bank Failure and Regional Banks
      • A Cautious Start to 2023
      • SECURE Act 2.0
      • Dealing With Unused 529 Funds
    • 2021 News Articles >
      • What is it about September?
      • Will Tax Law Changes Increase Your Taxes?
      • Tax Watch: SECURE Act 2.0?
      • The unstoppable bull market?
      • Stocks Cruise at a High Altitude
      • Tax law changes on the horizon – 5 things to consider
      • Not Your Fathers Economic Recovery
      • Are HSAs the New IRAs?
      • REVENGE OF THE NERDS - Internet forums vs. the professionals
      • Protect Your Financial Information
      • 2021 January Market update - A rollercoaster year ends on a high note
      • Avoiding 7 Retirement Traps
    • 2020 News Articles >
      • December Client Letter - Cruising at 30,000 Feet
      • 9 Tax Facts & Tips to Save You Money
      • 9 Smart Planning Moves to Consider
      • November Client Letter - Election 2020
      • 7 Financial Planning Steps for Year End 2020
      • 6 Tips on Filing the FAFSA
      • Circling Back to the SECURE Act!
      • A September Pothole
      • 6 Steps That Put You on the Path to a Successful Retirement
      • Consumer Scams Part 2
      • September 2020 Client Letter
      • Consumer Scams
      • May Client Letter-- Worst-Ever Economy Yet Stocks Show Best Monthly Gain Since '87
      • Why Waiting For A Market Rebound Could Cost You
      • How The Greatest Generation Approached September 11th
      • Laid Off And Near Retirement - What Now?
      • The SECURE Act
      • Market update: When favorable fundamentals collide with uncertainty
    • News - Archives >
      • 2015 - To be happy, be grateful. - It's science!!
      • 2015 - Market Volatility - So Now What?
      • 2015 - Retirement planning: Start early or start late – just start
      • 2015 - Financial Planning Checklist
      • 2014 In Review - A bullish mood and risks that dot the landscape.
      • 2015 - A sneak peek at 2015 – What to keep an eye on
      • 2015 - Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid for College
      • 2014 - Cheaper by the Dozen: 12 smart year end planning moves
      • 2014 - How safe is your personal information?
      • 2014 - Hey, what’s your number?
      • 2014 - What did we do before GPS?
      • 2014 - Changing Jobs Checklist
      • 2013 - US Government Shutdown - What it means
      • 2013 - Investing in College
      • 2012 - Getting (back) on track - The best part of my job…
      • 2011 - The Henny Penny School of Investment Wisdom
      • 2011 - 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Money Conflicts
      • 2011 - Intelligent Computer Shopping
      • 2011 - 7 things you and your student should discuss before they head off to college
      • 2011 - 7 mistakes to avoid when exiting your business
      • 2011 - Why you need an Estate Plan even if you don’t live in a mansion
      • 2011 - Celebrating Irish Heritage
      • 2010 - Priorities: Retirement Planning Vs College Savings for Children
      • 2010 - in review, and a look toward 2011
      • 2010 - New Years Resolutions - 2011
      • 2010 - Business Owners – a special case for diversification
      • 2010 - Year End Planning 2010
      • 2010 - Paying for college - Applying for student aid, determining your Expected Family Contribution
      • 2010 - Paying Taxes
      • 2010 - Job-Loss
      • 2010 - Habits
      • 2009 - Shopping
      • 2009 - Gift-Idea
      • 2009 - Thanksgiving
      • 2009 - Q3
      • 2009 - Recovery
      • 2009 - Results
      • 2009 - Digging
      • 2009 - Time
      • 2009 - Considering
      • 2008 - Planning
      • 2008 - Resolutions
    • Life Transitions >
      • Get A Job/Leave Job >
        • 9 Questions to ask your CPA at tax time
        • Getting (back) on track - the best part of my job
        • Changing Jobs Checklist
        • Job Loss
        • Taxes - 7 ideas to ease the burden - 2018
        • Year End Planning Checklist: 12 smart planning moves to consider
      • Marriage/Divorce/Re-Married >
        • 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Cash Conflicts
      • Kids (Birth/College/Marriage) >
        • 7 Things you and your student should discuss before they head off the college
        • Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid For College
        • Investing In College
        • Budgeting For Students
        • Save on Textbooks
        • Subsidized vs unsubsidized loans – what’s the difference?
        • 7 Tips for Your College Bound Student
        • “What I did on my Summer Vacation – 2019”
        • Budgeting for College Students - 2018
        • Most Significant FAFSA Changes in over 20 Years!!
        • Direct 529 Plan Changes To Be Implemented
      • Birth/Death >
        • Is a cash windfall in your future?
        • Planning for People with Special Needs
    • Client Letters >
      • 2019 - July Client Letter: Records Are Made To Be Broken
      • 2018 - Summer's Hot Issues
      • 2018 - November Market Update:
      • 2016 - January Client Letter - A volatile year ends with a whimper
      • 2016 - September Letter to Clients: The Ides of September?
      • 2016 - November Letter to Clients: The Final Countdown?
      • 2016 - December Letter to Clients: Near Term Impact of Trump's Victory
      • 2015 - September Client-letter: Looking past scary headlines
      • 2015 - November Client Letter: The Clouds Part
      • 2015 - December Client Letter, A Baker's Dozen: 13 Smart Planning Moves