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    • 2021 News Articles >
      • What is it about September?
      • Will Tax Law Changes Increase Your Taxes?
      • Tax Watch: SECURE Act 2.0?
      • The unstoppable bull market?
      • Stocks Cruise at a High Altitude
      • Tax law changes on the horizon – 5 things to consider
      • Not Your Fathers Economic Recovery
      • Are HSAs the New IRAs?
      • REVENGE OF THE NERDS - Internet forums vs. the professionals
      • Protect Your Financial Information
      • 2021 January Market update - A rollercoaster year ends on a high note
      • Avoiding 7 Retirement Traps
    • 2020 News Articles >
      • December Client Letter - Cruising at 30,000 Feet
      • 9 Tax Facts & Tips to Save You Money
      • 9 Smart Planning Moves to Consider
      • November Client Letter - Election 2020
      • 7 Financial Planning Steps for Year End 2020
      • 6 Tips on Filing the FAFSA
      • Circling Back to the SECURE Act!
      • A September Pothole
      • 6 Steps That Put You on the Path to a Successful Retirement
      • Consumer Scams Part 2
      • September 2020 Client Letter
      • Consumer Scams
      • May Client Letter-- Worst-Ever Economy Yet Stocks Show Best Monthly Gain Since '87
      • Why Waiting For A Market Rebound Could Cost You
      • How The Greatest Generation Approached September 11th
      • Laid Off And Near Retirement - What Now?
      • The SECURE Act
      • Market update: When favorable fundamentals collide with uncertainty
    • News - Archives >
      • 2015 - To be happy, be grateful. - It's science!!
      • 2015 - Market Volatility - So Now What?
      • 2015 - Retirement planning: Start early or start late – just start
      • 2015 - Financial Planning Checklist
      • 2014 In Review - A bullish mood and risks that dot the landscape.
      • 2015 - A sneak peek at 2015 – What to keep an eye on
      • 2015 - Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid for College
      • 2014 - Cheaper by the Dozen: 12 smart year end planning moves
      • 2014 - How safe is your personal information?
      • 2014 - Hey, what’s your number?
      • 2014 - What did we do before GPS?
      • 2014 - Changing Jobs Checklist
      • 2013 - US Government Shutdown - What it means
      • 2013 - Investing in College
      • 2012 - Getting (back) on track - The best part of my job…
      • 2011 - The Henny Penny School of Investment Wisdom
      • 2011 - 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Money Conflicts
      • 2011 - Intelligent Computer Shopping
      • 2011 - 7 things you and your student should discuss before they head off to college
      • 2011 - 7 mistakes to avoid when exiting your business
      • 2011 - Why you need an Estate Plan even if you don’t live in a mansion
      • 2011 - Celebrating Irish Heritage
      • 2010 - Priorities: Retirement Planning Vs College Savings for Children
      • 2010 - in review, and a look toward 2011
      • 2010 - New Years Resolutions - 2011
      • 2010 - Business Owners – a special case for diversification
      • 2010 - Year End Planning 2010
      • 2010 - Paying for college - Applying for student aid, determining your Expected Family Contribution
      • 2010 - Paying Taxes
      • 2010 - Job-Loss
      • 2010 - Habits
      • 2009 - Shopping
      • 2009 - Gift-Idea
      • 2009 - Thanksgiving
      • 2009 - Q3
      • 2009 - Recovery
      • 2009 - Results
      • 2009 - Digging
      • 2009 - Time
      • 2009 - Considering
      • 2008 - Planning
      • 2008 - Resolutions
    • Life Transitions >
      • Get A Job/Leave Job >
        • 9 Questions to ask your CPA at tax time
        • Getting (back) on track - the best part of my job
        • Changing Jobs Checklist
        • Job Loss
        • Taxes - 7 ideas to ease the burden - 2018
        • Year End Planning Checklist: 12 smart planning moves to consider
      • Marriage/Divorce/Re-Married >
        • 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Cash Conflicts
      • Kids (Birth/College/Marriage) >
        • 7 Things you and your student should discuss before they head off the college
        • Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid For College
        • Investing In College
        • Budgeting For Students
        • Save on Textbooks
        • Subsidized vs unsubsidized loans – what’s the difference?
        • 7 Tips for Your College Bound Student
        • “What I did on my Summer Vacation – 2019”
        • Budgeting for College Students - 2018
        • Most Significant FAFSA Changes in over 20 Years!!
        • Direct 529 Plan Changes To Be Implemented
      • Birth/Death >
        • Is a cash windfall in your future?
        • Planning for People with Special Needs
    • Client Letters >
      • 2019 - July Client Letter: Records Are Made To Be Broken
      • 2018 - Summer's Hot Issues
      • 2018 - November Market Update:
      • 2016 - January Client Letter - A volatile year ends with a whimper
      • 2016 - September Letter to Clients: The Ides of September?
      • 2016 - November Letter to Clients: The Final Countdown?
      • 2016 - December Letter to Clients: Near Term Impact of Trump's Victory
      • 2015 - September Client-letter: Looking past scary headlines
      • 2015 - November Client Letter: The Clouds Part
      • 2015 - December Client Letter, A Baker's Dozen: 13 Smart Planning Moves

What is it about September?

​September has historically been the worst month for stocks, according to St. Louis Federal Reserve data measuring monthly S&P 500 performance over the last 50 years. If you are wondering whether the trend has abated in recent years, the answer is no, it hasn’t.  Over the last 10 years, September performance has been substandard.  While analysts have offered various explanations, no one has pinpointed the reason we sometimes see seasonal weakness as summer concludes.
 
Look no further than the table of Key Index Returns. The S&P 500 Index fell 4.8% in September. It was the first monthly decline since January and the worst decline since March 2020 when the lockdowns began.
Picture
Source: MSCI.com, Bloomberg, MarketWatch
MTD: returns: August 31, 2021—September 30, 2021
YTD returns: December 31, 2020—September 30, 2021
*in US dollars

Peaking at a new record on September 2, the broad-based S&P 500 Index began a pullback that can be tied to several factors.  Before we continue, a 4.8% drop is modest by market standards. In fact, we’ve yet to shed 10% since the bull market began in late March 2020, which would be considered a “correction” by analysts.  So, what’s behind the sell-off last month?
 
The economy is not contracting, and a moderation was expected after Q2’s 6.7% annualized growth rate (U.S. BEA), but the slowdown has been more pronounced than expected.  The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which incorporates economic data that impacts GDP, suggests that Q3 growth is tracking at just 2.3%. This would include Q3 data released through October 1. That means all of July, most of August and none of October’s data have been inputted into the model.  While profit growth has soared coming out of the lockdowns, per Refinitiv, a more pronounced moderation in profit growth may be on tap.
 
Next question, why is Q3 disappointing on the economic front? Well, the spike in Covid cases is causing some hesitation in industries that are dependent on face-to-face transactions. But there is good news on this front. The CDC says cases have slowed recently. We’ll see how this continues to play out later in the fall. While bank deposit data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve suggest consumers have plenty of spendable cash in reserve, the influx of new stimulus money has dwindled, and spending has slowed. We’re also seeing stubbornly high inflation in some industries, as supply chain bottlenecks aren’t fixing themselves.
 
As Fed Chief Jerome Powell noted at the end of September, bottlenecks and shortages of key raw materials are “not getting better—in fact at the margins (they are) apparently getting a little bit worse.”  Similar to severe labor shortages, supply chain problems are crimping profitability, limiting sales, raising prices and hampering economic growth. Investors are taking note.
 
An uptick in bond yields near the end of the month also dampened sentiment. While yields remain quite low, they ticked higher after the Federal Reserve took on a slightly more hawkish tone at the September 22 meeting.  These are probably the biggest reasons for the pullback last month.
 
Not to be Debbie Downer, but let’s look at a few more.  The debate over the debt ceiling is taking shape. The U.S. Treasury has said it will run up against the current debt ceiling on October 18. That means it can no longer borrow to fund operations, and the U.S. would default on its debt unless Congress extends the ceiling.  As Moody’s Analytics recently noted, “The debt ceiling will be raised. Not doing so would be catastrophic for the economy, so this is an extremely low probability event.”  We’ve seen this drama play out before, and lawmakers avoided sailing into uncharted waters. Still, it’s causing some headline anxiety.
 
China’s largest and most indebted property developer is on the brink of bankruptcy. While Western financial exposure is likely limited, a disorderly default could create big problems for the world’s second-largest economy. 
 
Finally, an energy crisis is brewing in Europe, while natural gas prices hit new highs in Asia. They are running about six times what we see at home (Reuters).   The U.S. isn’t directly affected, but these are costs that may get added to manufactured goods or could restrict output, adding to supply chain woes.
 
Final thoughts
 
We’re overdue for at least a 10% correction. We know they tend to be unpleasant, but they are part of the investment landscape.   With all but the most aggressive and risk tolerant investors, we recommend a healthy portion of fixed income investments. Adding a mix of bonds into the portfolio smooths out returns. We don’t see the extreme highs when stocks are rising but mixing in fixed income reduces your risk on the downside when equities turn lower.
 
As we’ve noted in the past, stocks tend to take the stairs up and the elevator down. If we are headed toward an overdue correction, pullbacks tend to be short lived.  I trust you’ve found this review to be educational and informative.  Let me emphasize that it is my job to assist you. If you have any questions or would like to discuss any matters, please feel free to give me a call.

Your comments and questions are always welcome.
We look forward to hearing from you.  mail@kyleshill.com


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- John Davidson, CFP
  • Home
  • Background
    • About Us
    • Q&A
    • Disclosures
    • Privacy Policy
  • Services
    • Planning Process
  • Clients
    • Business Owners
    • Individual Professionals, Families, Retirees
  • Contact Us
    • Newsletter Sign-Up
    • Useful Websites & Quick Hits
  • Account Access
  • News
    • 2021 News Articles >
      • What is it about September?
      • Will Tax Law Changes Increase Your Taxes?
      • Tax Watch: SECURE Act 2.0?
      • The unstoppable bull market?
      • Stocks Cruise at a High Altitude
      • Tax law changes on the horizon – 5 things to consider
      • Not Your Fathers Economic Recovery
      • Are HSAs the New IRAs?
      • REVENGE OF THE NERDS - Internet forums vs. the professionals
      • Protect Your Financial Information
      • 2021 January Market update - A rollercoaster year ends on a high note
      • Avoiding 7 Retirement Traps
    • 2020 News Articles >
      • December Client Letter - Cruising at 30,000 Feet
      • 9 Tax Facts & Tips to Save You Money
      • 9 Smart Planning Moves to Consider
      • November Client Letter - Election 2020
      • 7 Financial Planning Steps for Year End 2020
      • 6 Tips on Filing the FAFSA
      • Circling Back to the SECURE Act!
      • A September Pothole
      • 6 Steps That Put You on the Path to a Successful Retirement
      • Consumer Scams Part 2
      • September 2020 Client Letter
      • Consumer Scams
      • May Client Letter-- Worst-Ever Economy Yet Stocks Show Best Monthly Gain Since '87
      • Why Waiting For A Market Rebound Could Cost You
      • How The Greatest Generation Approached September 11th
      • Laid Off And Near Retirement - What Now?
      • The SECURE Act
      • Market update: When favorable fundamentals collide with uncertainty
    • News - Archives >
      • 2015 - To be happy, be grateful. - It's science!!
      • 2015 - Market Volatility - So Now What?
      • 2015 - Retirement planning: Start early or start late – just start
      • 2015 - Financial Planning Checklist
      • 2014 In Review - A bullish mood and risks that dot the landscape.
      • 2015 - A sneak peek at 2015 – What to keep an eye on
      • 2015 - Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid for College
      • 2014 - Cheaper by the Dozen: 12 smart year end planning moves
      • 2014 - How safe is your personal information?
      • 2014 - Hey, what’s your number?
      • 2014 - What did we do before GPS?
      • 2014 - Changing Jobs Checklist
      • 2013 - US Government Shutdown - What it means
      • 2013 - Investing in College
      • 2012 - Getting (back) on track - The best part of my job…
      • 2011 - The Henny Penny School of Investment Wisdom
      • 2011 - 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Money Conflicts
      • 2011 - Intelligent Computer Shopping
      • 2011 - 7 things you and your student should discuss before they head off to college
      • 2011 - 7 mistakes to avoid when exiting your business
      • 2011 - Why you need an Estate Plan even if you don’t live in a mansion
      • 2011 - Celebrating Irish Heritage
      • 2010 - Priorities: Retirement Planning Vs College Savings for Children
      • 2010 - in review, and a look toward 2011
      • 2010 - New Years Resolutions - 2011
      • 2010 - Business Owners – a special case for diversification
      • 2010 - Year End Planning 2010
      • 2010 - Paying for college - Applying for student aid, determining your Expected Family Contribution
      • 2010 - Paying Taxes
      • 2010 - Job-Loss
      • 2010 - Habits
      • 2009 - Shopping
      • 2009 - Gift-Idea
      • 2009 - Thanksgiving
      • 2009 - Q3
      • 2009 - Recovery
      • 2009 - Results
      • 2009 - Digging
      • 2009 - Time
      • 2009 - Considering
      • 2008 - Planning
      • 2008 - Resolutions
    • Life Transitions >
      • Get A Job/Leave Job >
        • 9 Questions to ask your CPA at tax time
        • Getting (back) on track - the best part of my job
        • Changing Jobs Checklist
        • Job Loss
        • Taxes - 7 ideas to ease the burden - 2018
        • Year End Planning Checklist: 12 smart planning moves to consider
      • Marriage/Divorce/Re-Married >
        • 8 Ways to Help Couples Overcome Cash Conflicts
      • Kids (Birth/College/Marriage) >
        • 7 Things you and your student should discuss before they head off the college
        • Getting The Most Out of Financial Aid For College
        • Investing In College
        • Budgeting For Students
        • Save on Textbooks
        • Subsidized vs unsubsidized loans – what’s the difference?
        • 7 Tips for Your College Bound Student
        • “What I did on my Summer Vacation – 2019”
        • Budgeting for College Students - 2018
        • Most Significant FAFSA Changes in over 20 Years!!
        • Direct 529 Plan Changes To Be Implemented
      • Birth/Death >
        • Is a cash windfall in your future?
        • Planning for People with Special Needs
    • Client Letters >
      • 2019 - July Client Letter: Records Are Made To Be Broken
      • 2018 - Summer's Hot Issues
      • 2018 - November Market Update:
      • 2016 - January Client Letter - A volatile year ends with a whimper
      • 2016 - September Letter to Clients: The Ides of September?
      • 2016 - November Letter to Clients: The Final Countdown?
      • 2016 - December Letter to Clients: Near Term Impact of Trump's Victory
      • 2015 - September Client-letter: Looking past scary headlines
      • 2015 - November Client Letter: The Clouds Part
      • 2015 - December Client Letter, A Baker's Dozen: 13 Smart Planning Moves